USD
Brief:
1.Today's US economic releases, -actual- US Change in NFP -May- (-60k), US Change in manufacturing payrolls -May- (-40k), Unemployment rate -May- (5.1%) and US Wholesale inventories -Apr- (0.5%).
2.Yesterday's US economic releases, -actual- US Initial jobless claims (357k) and US ICSC Chain store sales -YoY- (3.0)
3.Economist said the government's payroll report today may show the economy lost 60k jobs in May, a fifth straight decline and the jobless rate is forecast to rise to 5.1% from 5% in April.
4.USD felled from 4 weeks high against the euro yesterday after ECB President Trichet said an interest rate increase in July is possible as inflation is showing no signs of slowing.
5.USD failed to recover against the euro amid a report showed US initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell last week by 18k to 357k as ECB President Trichet signaled a rate raise is possible on next month ECB meeting.
On the upside:
•Cross currencies weakness. (JPY and GBP)
•Some recovery after yesterday's retreat.
On the downside:
•ECB members might further back President Trichet suggestion to increases its rate next month to cool inflation.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases. (Important)
•ECB members statements/comments.
•News/statements related to Major institution..
•Fed member’s comments/statements.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: AUD/USD - NZD/USD - GBP/USD – EUR/USD –
Long: USD/JPY - USD/CHF - USD/CAD –
Possible main pairs are: – EUR/USD - USD/JPY – AUD/USD – GBP/USD – NZD/USD – USD/CAD -
-According to 13.15GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.JPY weakens against most currencies today as Asian and European stock markets rose, led by oil producer on crude oil gains.
2.JPY weakens against most currencies yesterday as US stock markets rose the most in almost 2 months, led by energy companies as crude oil jumped more than $5 per barrel yesterday on dollar decline.
3.US indexes rose, led by energy producer stocks as crude oil jumped on short-covering and after the dollar falls on ECB President Trichet comments.
On the upside:
•Commodities might retreat today after yesterday gain on selling pressure as investors exit positions ahead of weekends.
On the downside:
•Cross currency strength. (USD -possible a recovery-)
•Weaker outlook on Japan’s economic growth.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•ECB members statements/comments.
•Major corporate earnings reports.
•News related to major institution.
•Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Long: USD/JPY - GBP/JPY – AUD/JPY– NZD/JPY– EUR/JPY –
Possible main pairs are: –GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY - USD/JPY -
-According to 13.15GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today's Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- France Trade balance -Apr- (-3.7B euros), France Central government budget balance -Apr- (-45B Euros) and Germany Industrial production -MoM- (-0.8%).
2.Germany industrial production unexpectedly declined in April by 0.8% while another report showed France's trade deficit narrowed in April as exports rebounded.
3..Economists said the dollar may extend its drop against euro before a government report that may show US conomy lost 60k jobs in May, a fifth straight decline and the jobless rate is forecast to rise to 5.1% from 5% in April.
4.EUR strengthened against the dollar yesterday after ECB President Trichet said an interest rate increase in July is possible as inflation is showing no signs of slowing.
5.EUR strengthened, erases earlier losses amid ECB kept interest rates at a 6 years high yesterday to fight inflation even as the euro-region economy cools while a report showed Germany manufacturing orders unexpectedly declined 1.8% in April, adding to evidence that growth in Europe's largest economy is slowing.
On the upside:
•Cross currency weakness. (JPY and GBP)
•Other ECB members might signal that they supports ECB's President Trichet suggestion regarding an interest rate raise next month.
On the downside:
•Cross currency strength. (USD)
•Some selling pressure after yesterday's gain as investors exit position ahead of weekends.
•Weaker euro-zone economic growth outlook.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•ECB member statements/comments.
•US stock indexes movement.
•News related to major corporate.
•Fed members statement/comments.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: EUR/USD – EUR/NZD – EUR/AUD – EUR/GBP –
Long: - EUR/JPY - EUR/CHF – EUR/CAD
Possible main pairs are: – EUR/AUD – EUR/JPY – EUR/GBP - EUR/USD – EUR/CAD -
-According to 13.15GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil rose today as the dollar weakens and Morgan Stanley said prices may reach $150 within a month because of accelerating Asian consumption amid declining inventories.
2.Analysts said crude oil may fall next week because of rising US fuel inventories and declining demand as consumers react to record prices.
3.Crude oil rose $5.60 yesterday, the biggest gain since late March as the dollar weakens after ECB President signaled an interest rate raise is possible on next meeting.
4.OPEC President Khelil said there may be an understanding between the ECB and the Fed to support the dollar, which before he blamed the weak dollar for rising oil price and ensure supplies is adequate.
5.Crude oil remains high yesterday even as the head of the US House energy subcommittee on investigations is drafting legislation that would expand access by regulators to information about swaps and 2 way trades in the oil market.
On the upside:
•Atlantic hurricane season.
On the downside:
•Selling pressure after yesterday gain as investors exit positions and take profits ahead of weekends.
•USD might slightly recovery after yesterday's retreat.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•USD movement.
•Weather report.
•Atlantic ocean hurricane activities.
•US indexes movement.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
•Fed or its member’s statements/comments.
Trade suggestion:
“Long” Crude oil around low $130 and mid $130 (Today's US economic releases, USD movement and US indexes movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 13.15GM price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD rebounds on early trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•US capital market rises on early trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•JPY retreats following US indexes movement.
•EUR weakens on early trading session.
•Crude oil retreats on early trading session.
16PM – 18PM GMT:
•USD strengthens on mid trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•US capital markets remains or slightly rises during mid trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•JPY weakens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR weakens on mid trading session.
•Crude oil remains or slightly weakens by mid trading session.
18PM – 22PM GMT:
•USD remains or slightly strengthens by late trading session.
•US capital markets remains or slightly rises by late trading session.
•JPY remains or slightly weakens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR remains or slightly weakens by late trading session.
•Crude oil falls by late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
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