USD
Brief:
1.Today's US economic releases, -forecast- US Trade balance -Apr- ($59.6B) and ABC Consumer confidence (No forecast figures).
2.Yesterday's US economic releases, -actual- US Pending home sales -MoM- (6.3%).
3.USD extended yesterday's rally today after Fed Chairman Bernanke said the economic outlook has improved from a month ago and the central bank is closely monitoring inflation concerns.
4.The dollar rose to a 3 months high against the yen after Fed Chairman Bernanke said the risks of a substantial downturn in US economic growth have diminished and as Asian stocks rebounds after US indexes stabilized.
5.USD roes yesterday from a six weeks low as Treasury Secretary Paulson said in an interview that he would never rule out currency intervention and NY Fed President Geithner said the bank is paying very close attention to the dollar.
6.Economists said before reports this week that sales at US retailers probably rose in May as Americans started spending tax rebate checks and record gas prices inflated service station receipts.
On the upside:
•Cross currencies weakness. (JPY and GBP)
•Investors buying interest after Fed members' speeches.
On the downside:
•News that might suggests Fed would have to cut/hold its rates as economy slows.
•ECB members might further back President Trichet suggestion to increases its rate next month to cool inflation.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•US indexes movement.
•Fed member’s comments/statements.
•ECB members statements/comments.
•News/statements related to Major institution.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: AUD/USD - NZD/USD - GBP/USD – EUR/USD –
Long: USD/JPY - USD/CHF - USD/CAD – (Light)
Possible main pairs are: – EUR/USD - USD/JPY – GBP/USD – NZD/USD – USD/CAD - (Light)
-According to 13.10GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.Today's Japan economic releases, -forecast- Japan CGPI -YoY-MoM- (4.0% - 0.7%), Trade balance -Apr- (600B Yen), Japan Adjusted current account total -Apr- (1825.6B Yen), Japan GDP Annualized -1Q- (3.8%), Nominal GDP -QoQ- (0.5%) and GDP Deflator -YoY- (-1.4%).
2.JPY strengthens today as Asian and European stocks fell on concern central banks will have to raise interest rate to combat inflation as the economy slows amid rising food and oil prices.
3.JPY further weakens against the dollar today after Fed Chairman Bernanke said the risks of a substantial downturn in US economic growth have diminished
4.JPY felled to a 3 months low against the dollar yesterday as US indexes stabilized after the dollar rebounds after Treasury Secretary Paulson said in an interview that he would never rule out currency intervention.
On the upside:
•Crude oil might led commodities further retreat recent gains.
On the downside:
•Weaker outlook on Japan’s economic growth.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Today's Japan economic releases.
•US indexes movement.
•ECB members statements/comments.
•Major corporate earnings reports.
•News related to major institution.
•Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Long: USD/JPY - GBP/JPY – AUD/JPY– NZD/JPY– EUR/JPY –
Possible main pairs are: –GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY - USD/JPY -
-According to 13.10GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today's Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- Germany Wholesale price index -YoY-MoM- (8.1% - 1.4%), France Industrial production -YoY-MoM- (3.2% - 1.4%) and Italy GDP -YoY-QoQ- (0.3% - 0.5%).
2.Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- France Current account -Apr- (No forecast figures), France CPI -YoY-MoM- (3.3% - 0.4%) and France CPI EU-Harmonized -YoY-MoM- (3.6% - 0.5%).
3.EUR weakens against the dollar amid a report showed Germany wholesale prices jumped 1.4% May, the most in 26 years, increasing the inflation pressure in the region and France industrial production rose 1.4% in April from a drop in the previous month.
4.EUR weakens against the dollar yesterday after Treasury Secretary Paulson said in an interview that he would never rule out currency intervention.
5.EUR extended its decline against the dollar yesterday after Fed Chairman Bernanke said the risks of a substantial downturn in US economic growth have diminished
On the upside:
•Cross currency weakness. (JPY and GBP)
•Other ECB members might signals that they supports ECB's President Trichet suggestion regarding an interest rate raise next month.
On the downside:
•Cross currency strength. (USD)
•Weaker euro-zone economic growth outlook.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases.
•ECB member statements/comments.
•US stock indexes movement.
•News related to major corporate.
•Fed members statement/comments.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: EUR/USD – EUR/NZD – EUR/AUD – EUR/GBP –
Long: - EUR/JPY - EUR/CHF – EUR/CAD - (Light)
Possible main pairs are: – EUR/JPY – EUR/GBP - EUR/USD – EUR/CAD - (Light)
-According to 13.10GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil rose today as Merrill Lynch and Citigroup raised their price forecasts on concern that supply from outside OPEC isn't rising as fast as expected amid IEA reduced its 2008 forecast by about 70,000 barrels a day to 86.77Million barrels a day from 86.84Million last month as record prices dented consumption in its monthly report today.
2.Crude oil fell yesterday as the dollar strengthened after Treasury Secretary Paulson said in an interview that he would never rule out currency intervention and Fed Chairman Bernanke said the risks of a substantial downturn in US economic growth have diminished.
3.Crude oil extended its decline yesterday after Saudi Arabia's oil minister called for a meeting of oil producing and consuming nations to discuss how to deal with record prices, suggesting that OPEC might consider increasing oil production to ease the market.
4.Analysts said crude oil may fall this week because of rising US fuel inventories and declining demand as consumers react to record prices.
On the upside:
•Atlantic hurricane season.
On the downside:
•Further selling pressure as dollar recovers.
•Speculation on tomorrow's storage report.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Speculation on tomorrow's storage report.
•Weather report.
•Atlantic ocean hurricane activities.
•US indexes movement.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
•Fed or its member’s statements/comments.
Trade suggestion:
“Short” Crude oil around mid $137 and high $137 (Today's US economic releases, USD movement and US indexes movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 13.10GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD remains or slightly retreats on early trading session.
•US capital market remains or slightly rises on early trading session.
•JPY weakens following US indexes movement.
•EUR remains or slightly recovers on early trading session.
•Crude oil remains or slightly weakens on early trading session.
16PM – 18PM GMT:
•USD remains or slightly strengthens on mid trading session.
•US capital markets remains or slightly rises during mid trading session.
•JPY remains or slightly weakens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR remains or slightly weakens on mid trading session.
•Crude oil retreats by mid trading session.
18PM – 22PM GMT:
•USD strengthens by late trading session.
•US capital markets rises by late trading session.
•JPY weakens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR weakens by late trading session.
•Crude oil remains or slightly strengthens by late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
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