USD
Brief:
1.Today\'s US economic releases, -forecast- US Current account balance -1Q- (-$173.5B), US PPI -YoY-MoM- (6.4% - 1.0%), US PPI Ex-food and energy (3.0% - 0.2%), US Housing starts -May- (980k) and US Industrial production (-0.2%).
2.Yesterday\'s US economic releases, -actual- US Empire manufacturing -June- (-8.7) and US Total Net TIC flows -Apr- ($60.6B).
3.USD felled yesterday as a report showed New York state manufacturing shrank in June and crude oil prices briefly touched a record high of $139.89 a barrel.
4.Empire Manufacturing index felled -8.7 in June, more than economists expected as orders abroad declines.
5.Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker yesterday said downside risks to growth have diminished and reversing previous interest rate cuts makes eminent sense as the economy recovers.
6.Economists said before a report today that may show US housing starts declined last month to a level close to the lowest since 1991 and producer price index excluding energy and food items eased.
On the upside:
•Cross currencies weakness. (JPY and CAD)
•Rate raise speculation.
On the downside:
•News that might suggests Fed would have to cut/hold its rates as economy slows.
•ECB members comments signals a possible rate raise by next month.
To monitor:
•Today\'s US economic releases. (Important)
•US indexes movement.
•Fed members statements/comments.
•News/statements related to Major institution.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Long: AUD/USD - NZD/USD - GBP/USD – EUR/USD –
Short: USD/JPY - USD/CHF - USD/CAD –
Possible main pairs are: – EUR/USD - USD/JPY – NZD/USD – USD/CAD - AUD/USD -
-According to 13.10GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.Today\'s Japan economic releases, -actual- Japan Tertiary industrial index -MoM- (1.8%) and Japan Machine tool orders -YoY- (1.4%).
2.Today\'s BOJ meeting minutes publication and Tomorrow\'s Japan economic releases, -forecast- Japan Leading economic index (No forecast figures) and Coincident index (No forecast figures)
3JPY weakens today as Asian and European markets rose, led by commodities producer and on speculation Fed will keep interest rate on hold next week.4.JPY strengthens earlier after Japan\'s Tertiary index showed an increase of 1.8% from March and Japan\'s demand for services rose in April, gains economists say are too small to prop up the nation\'s faltering economy.
5.JPY is little change against the dollar yesterday amid most US stocks rose, led by financial companies as Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.\'s said it isn\'t losing clients and fueled a rally in financial companies.
On the upside:
•Commodities might fall.
•US stock markets might fall further today\'s report showed no signs of US economic recover.
On the downside:
•US stock markets might rise on economic optimism.
To monitor:
•Today\'s US economic releases. (Important)
•Today\'s BOJ meeting minutes publication and tomorrow\'s economic releases.
•US indexes movement
•ECB members statements/comments.
•Major corporate earnings reports.
•News related to major institution.
•Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Long: USD/JPY - GBP/JPY – AUD/JPY– NZD/JPY– EUR/JPY –
Possible main pairs are: –GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY - USD/JPY -
-According to 13.10GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today\'s Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- Italy Trade balance total -Apr- (-1004M Euros), Germany ZEW Survey -Current-Jun- (37.6), Germany ZEW Survey Economic sentiment -Jun- (-52.4), Euro-zone ZEW Survey Economic sentiment -Jun- (-52.7) and Euro-zone Trade balance (-2.3B Euros).
2.EUR slightly strengthens against the dollar amid a survey showed German investor confidence dropped -52.4, the lowest in more than 15 years in June as surging inflation dimmed the outlook for growth in the region.
3.EUR strengthens yesterday and rose to a 7 months high against the yen after a report showed European inflation accelerated to 3.7% in May, the highest in 16 years as food and energy costs soared.
4.EUR extended its rally against the dollar yesterday after a report showed New York manufacturing shrank more than expected in June.
On the upside:
•Cross currency weakness. (JPY)
•Other ECB members may signals that they supports ECB\'s President Trichet idea of a rate raise next month or near future.
On the downside:
•Cross currency strength. (USD)
•Weaker euro-zone economic growth outlook.
To monitor:
•Today\'s US economic releases. (Important)
•ECB member statements/comments.
•US stock indexes movement.
•News related to major corporate.
•Fed members statement/comments.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Long: EUR/USD – EUR/NZD – EUR/AUD – EUR/GBP –
Short: - EUR/JPY - EUR/CHF – EUR/CAD -
Possible main pairs are: – EUR/JPY – EUR/GBP - EUR/USD – EUR/CAD -
-According to 13.10GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil declined today amid concerns that slower economic growth will curb consumption of oil products.
2.Crude oil briefly rallied above $139 yesterday, an all time high, but felled back into negative territory by late trading session after King Abdullah told UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon that the kingdom will produce 9.7Million barrels of oil a day next month, an increase of 200,000 barrels from June\'s level.
3.Crude oil rose early yesterday before US trading session starts as a drill rig fire cut North Sea production and the dollar weakens after a report showed Euro-zone inflation rose to a 16 years high.
4.Crude oil is unable to sustain above $139 yesterday amid the dollar further declines after a report showed New York manufacturing shrank more than expected in June.
5.Nigerian President said in a statement last week after talks with French President in Paris that removal of Shell will calm down unrest by Ogoniland residents, but analysts claims the move might disrupt productions.
On the upside:
•Atlantic hurricane season.
•Heat wave.
•Possible supply disruption in Nigeria.
On the downside:
•Further selling pressure as dollar recovers.
•Production raise speculation.
•Record prices forced weaker consumption and drives inflation in the US.
•Yesterday Empire manufacturing index suggest oil demand may fall as manufacturer production falls.
To monitor:
•Today\'s US economic releases. (Important)
•Tomorrow\'s storage report speculation.
•OPEC member\'s comments.
•USD movement.
•Weather report.
•Atlantic ocean hurricane activities.
•US indexes movement.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
•Fed or its member’s statements/comments.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Short” Crude oil around mid $132 and high $132 (Today\'s US economic releases, USD movement and US indexes movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 13.10GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD remains or slightly strengthens on early trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•US capital market rises on early trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•JPY weakens following US indexes movement.
•EUR remains or slightly weakens on early trading session.
•Crude oil weakens on early trading session.
16PM – 18PM GMT:
•USD remains or slightly weakens on mid trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•US capital markets rises on mid trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•JPY weakens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR remains or slightly strengthens on mid trading session.
•Crude oil remains or slightly strengthens by mid trading session.
18PM – 22PM GMT:
•USD remains or slightly retreats by late trading session.
•US capital markets remains or rise further by late trading session.
•JPY remains or slightly weakens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR remains or slightly recovers by late trading session.
•Crude oil remains or slightly rises by late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
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